It is the time of the year for predictions – here is what I think will happen in 2010 in consumer Internet:
- Facebook will lock down on its dominance of the social graph: Facebook Connect will become the standard for the social web with every major website implementing it. Other social networks like MySpace, Hi5, Friendster or our own Nexopia will have to differentiate even more radically and build their business around or on top of Facebook.
- 2010 will be the year of content companies: with AOL‘s new focus on content generation, DemandMedia‘s looming IPO and tons of innovation in this vertical, content companies will get more attention than ever before and come up with new models to produce high-quality content at scale. I am with you, Tim Armstrong.
- We will see a leader in geo-location emerge: it might be Foursquare, Gowalla, Facebook or Twitter but I am pretty certain that one of them will nail it and get to critical mass. My bet is on Facebook with outsider chances going to Twitter.
- The apparel vertical will see tons of investment activity with the private sales category getting close to bubble stage, new apparel brands being launched as web-only ventures (like Bonobos and Indochino have done) and new types of shopping concepts emerging.
- 2010 will see the IPO and M&A markets come back in full force with a long list of top companies readying for public markets (Kayak, Bigfishgames, DemandMedia, Zynga, perhaps Facebook) and successful IPO’s kick-starting the M&A markets.
So what have I forgotten or gotten wrong? And what are your predictions for 2010?